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Backup automatico script del 2026-07-19 07:00

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daniele
2026-07-19 07:00:03 +02:00
parent 927f0d4184
commit 4802b021fe
24 changed files with 686 additions and 213 deletions
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services/telegram-bot/severe_weather.py
+159 -30
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@@ -101,16 +101,56 @@ CONVECTIVE_MIN_PRECIP_H = 0.5 # mm/h
CONVECTIVE_MIN_PRECIP_3H = 2.0 # mm/3h
# ----------------- SOGLIE DI SIGNIFICATIVITÀ (per NOTIFICA temporali) -----------------
# Si notifica solo se c'è almeno un evento "significativo": fulminazioni forti,
# bomba d'acqua o downburst. Soglie alte per filtrare i temporali marginali estivi.
SIGNIFICANT_CAPE_LIGHTNING = 1200.0 # J/kg - fulminazioni rilevanti (instabilità moderata: scelta orientata alla sicurezza)
# La fulminazione "forte" deve corrispondere a una cella temporalesca prevista sul posto:
# oltre a CAPE+LPI richiede precipitazione convettiva consistente (non semplice pioggerella).
# Base (fascia "near"): si notifica solo se c'è almeno un evento "significativo".
SIGNIFICANT_CAPE_LIGHTNING = 1200.0 # J/kg - fulminazioni rilevanti
SIGNIFICANT_LIGHTNING_PRECIP_H = 2.0 # mm/h
SIGNIFICANT_LIGHTNING_PRECIP_3H = 5.0 # mm/3h
SIGNIFICANT_PRECIP_H = 30.0 # mm/h - bomba d'acqua (nubifragio forte)
SIGNIFICANT_PRECIP_3H = 50.0 # mm/3h - nubifragio forte su 3 ore
SIGNIFICANT_STORM_SCORE = 55.0 # Storm Severity Score minimo per significativo
SIGNIFICANT_PRECIP_H = 30.0 # mm/h - bomba d'acqua
SIGNIFICANT_PRECIP_3H = 50.0 # mm/3h
SIGNIFICANT_STORM_SCORE = 55.0
# ----------------- SOGLIE PER ANTICIPO (lead-time) -----------------
# Concetto: avvisa 24h prima solo se è un "finimondo"; eventi moderati bastano
# poche ore prima (le previsioni lontane sono spesso fuori scala e poi si smussano).
# near: < 6h → soglie base (sensibili)
# mid: 6–12h → soglie elevate
# far: ≥ 12h → soglie estreme
LEAD_NEAR_H = 6.0
LEAD_MID_H = 12.0
LEAD_STORM = {
"near": {
"cape": SIGNIFICANT_CAPE_LIGHTNING,
"lightning_precip_h": SIGNIFICANT_LIGHTNING_PRECIP_H,
"lightning_precip_3h": SIGNIFICANT_LIGHTNING_PRECIP_3H,
"precip_h": SIGNIFICANT_PRECIP_H,
"precip_3h": SIGNIFICANT_PRECIP_3H,
"score": SIGNIFICANT_STORM_SCORE,
"downburst_gusts": WIND_GUST_DOWNBURST_THRESHOLD,
},
"mid": {
"cape": 1800.0,
"lightning_precip_h": 5.0,
"lightning_precip_3h": 12.0,
"precip_h": 40.0,
"precip_3h": 65.0,
"score": 70.0,
"downburst_gusts": 75.0,
},
"far": {
"cape": 2500.0,
"lightning_precip_h": 10.0,
"lightning_precip_3h": 25.0,
"precip_h": 55.0,
"precip_3h": 80.0,
"score": 85.0,
"downburst_gusts": 90.0,
},
}
# Vento: livello minimo notificato per fascia (1=giallo, 2=arancione, 3=rosso)
LEAD_WIND_MIN_LEVEL = {"near": 1, "mid": 2, "far": 3}
# Pioggia: mm/3h minimi per fascia
LEAD_RAIN_3H = {"near": RAIN_3H_LIMIT, "mid": 40.0, "far": 55.0}
# ----------------- FILES -----------------
STATE_FILE = "/home/daniely/docker/telegram-bot/weather_state.json"
@@ -232,6 +272,18 @@ def telegram_send_html(message_html: str, chat_ids: Optional[List[str]] = None)
message_html: Messaggio HTML da inviare
chat_ids: Lista di chat IDs (default: TELEGRAM_CHAT_IDS)
"""
try:
from telegram_gate import mirror_alert_to_web, telegram_alerts_enabled
except ImportError:
telegram_alerts_enabled = lambda: True # type: ignore
mirror_alert_to_web = lambda *a, **k: False # type: ignore
if not telegram_alerts_enabled():
LOGGER.info("Telegram sospeso: skip severe_weather")
if message_html:
mirror_alert_to_web(message_html, "severe_weather", "warning", is_html=True)
return False
token = load_bot_token()
if not token:
LOGGER.warning("Telegram token missing: message not sent.")
@@ -1159,9 +1211,32 @@ def format_convective_alert(storm_events: List[Dict], times: List[str], start_id
# =============================================================================
# SIGNIFICATIVITÀ E ANTI-SPAM (temporali severi)
# =============================================================================
def storm_event_significance(event: Dict) -> List[str]:
"""Ritorna i motivi per cui un evento convettivo è 'significativo' (degno di
notifica). Lista vuota = evento marginale, da NON notificare."""
def lead_tier(lead_hours: float) -> str:
"""Fascia di anticipo: near (<6h), mid (6–12h), far (≥12h)."""
if lead_hours < LEAD_NEAR_H:
return "near"
if lead_hours < LEAD_MID_H:
return "mid"
return "far"
def lead_hours_from_start_str(start_str: str, now: datetime.datetime) -> float:
"""Calcola ore di anticipo da stringa 'dd/mm HH:MM' (o vuota → 0)."""
if not start_str:
return 0.0
try:
# Formato ddmmyy_hhmm: "dd/mm HH:MM" — anno corrente / prossimo
dt = datetime.datetime.strptime(start_str.strip(), "%d/%m %H:%M")
dt = dt.replace(year=now.year, tzinfo=TZINFO)
if dt < now - datetime.timedelta(days=1):
dt = dt.replace(year=now.year + 1)
return max(0.0, (dt - now).total_seconds() / 3600.0)
except Exception:
return 0.0
def storm_event_significance(event: Dict, lead_hours: float = 0.0) -> List[str]:
"""Ritorna i motivi di significatività; soglie scalate per anticipo (lead_hours)."""
reasons: List[str] = []
threats = event.get("threats", []) or []
cape = float(event.get("cape", 0.0) or 0.0)
@@ -1169,39 +1244,59 @@ def storm_event_significance(event: Dict) -> List[str]:
precip = float(event.get("precip", 0.0) or 0.0)
precip_3h = float(event.get("precip_3h", 0.0) or 0.0)
score = float(event.get("score", 0.0) or 0.0)
gusts = float(event.get("gusts", 0.0) or 0.0)
lightning_precip = (precip >= SIGNIFICANT_LIGHTNING_PRECIP_H or
precip_3h >= SIGNIFICANT_LIGHTNING_PRECIP_3H)
if ("Fulminazioni" in threats and cape >= SIGNIFICANT_CAPE_LIGHTNING
thr = LEAD_STORM[lead_tier(lead_hours)]
lightning_precip = (precip >= thr["lightning_precip_h"] or
precip_3h >= thr["lightning_precip_3h"])
if ("Fulminazioni" in threats and cape >= thr["cape"]
and lpi > 0 and lightning_precip):
reasons.append("Fulminazioni forti")
if precip >= SIGNIFICANT_PRECIP_H or precip_3h >= SIGNIFICANT_PRECIP_3H:
if precip >= thr["precip_h"] or precip_3h >= thr["precip_3h"]:
reasons.append("Bomba d'acqua")
if "Downburst/Temporale violento" in threats:
if ("Downburst/Temporale violento" in threats
and gusts >= thr["downburst_gusts"]
and cape >= thr["cape"]):
reasons.append("Downburst")
if score >= SIGNIFICANT_STORM_SCORE and not reasons:
if score >= thr["score"] and not reasons:
reasons.append("Temporale severo")
return reasons
def filter_significant_storms(storm_events: List[Dict], now: datetime.datetime) -> List[Dict]:
"""Mantiene solo gli eventi significativi, con cluster minimo e anti-glitch."""
"""Mantiene solo eventi significativi per la loro fascia di anticipo + cluster."""
out: List[Dict] = []
for ev in storm_events or []:
reasons = storm_event_significance(ev)
if not reasons:
continue
try:
lead = (parse_time_to_local(ev["timestamp"]) - now).total_seconds() / 3600.0
except Exception:
lead = 0.0
if lead < 0:
lead = 0.0
reasons = storm_event_significance(ev, lead_hours=lead)
if not reasons:
continue
e2 = dict(ev)
e2["lead_hours"] = lead
e2["lead_tier"] = lead_tier(lead)
e2["significance"] = reasons
out.append(e2)
return filter_storm_cluster(out)
def wind_meets_lead_threshold(level: int, lead_hours: float) -> bool:
"""Vento notificato solo se il livello raggiunge il minimo della fascia di anticipo."""
if level <= 0:
return False
return level >= LEAD_WIND_MIN_LEVEL[lead_tier(lead_hours)]
def rain_meets_lead_threshold(rain_max_3h: float, lead_hours: float) -> bool:
"""Pioggia notificata solo se mm/3h raggiungono la soglia della fascia di anticipo."""
return rain_max_3h >= LEAD_RAIN_3H[lead_tier(lead_hours)]
def _today_key(now: datetime.datetime) -> str:
return now.strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
@@ -1634,21 +1729,37 @@ def analyze(chat_ids: Optional[List[str]] = None, debug_mode: bool = False, lat:
state["convective_storm_active"] = False
state["last_storm_score"] = 0.0
# 2) Vento persistente
if wind_level_curr > 0:
# 2) Vento persistente — soglia livello scalata per anticipo
wind_lead = lead_hours_from_start_str(wind_start, now) if wind_level_curr > 0 else 0.0
wind_notify = wind_meets_lead_threshold(wind_level_curr, wind_lead)
if wind_notify:
wind_msg = wind_message(wind_level_curr, wind_peak, wind_start, wind_run_len)
tier = lead_tier(wind_lead)
if tier != "near":
wind_msg += f"\n🔭 <i>Anticipo ~{wind_lead:.0f}h (fascia {tier}: soglia elevata)</i>"
if "wind" in comparisons:
comp = comparisons["wind"]
wind_msg += f"\n⚠️ <b>Discordanza modelli</b>: AROME {comp['arome']:.0f} km/h | ICON {comp['icon']:.0f} km/h (scostamento {comp['diff_pct']:.0f}%)"
alerts.append(wind_msg)
state["wind_level"] = wind_level_curr
state["last_wind_peak"] = float(wind_peak)
elif wind_level_curr > 0:
LOGGER.info(
"Vento livello %s soppresso (anticipo ~%.0fh, fascia %s richiede livello ≥%s)",
wind_level_curr, wind_lead, lead_tier(wind_lead),
LEAD_WIND_MIN_LEVEL[lead_tier(wind_lead)],
)
state["wind_level"] = 0
state["last_wind_peak"] = 0.0
else:
state["wind_level"] = 0
state["last_wind_peak"] = 0.0
# 3) Pioggia persistente
if rain_persist >= PERSIST_HOURS and rain_max_3h >= RAIN_3H_LIMIT:
# 3) Pioggia persistente — mm/3h scalati per anticipo
rain_lead = lead_hours_from_start_str(rain_start, now) if rain_persist >= PERSIST_HOURS else 0.0
rain_base_ok = rain_persist >= PERSIST_HOURS and rain_max_3h >= RAIN_3H_LIMIT
rain_notify = rain_base_ok and rain_meets_lead_threshold(rain_max_3h, rain_lead)
if rain_notify:
rain_analysis = None
if rain_start:
rain_start_idx = -1
@@ -1670,18 +1781,31 @@ def analyze(chat_ids: Optional[List[str]] = None, debug_mode: bool = False, lat:
threshold_mm_h=8.0,
)
rain_msg = rain_message(rain_max_3h, rain_start, rain_persist, rain_analysis=rain_analysis)
tier = lead_tier(rain_lead)
if tier != "near":
rain_msg += (
f"\n🔭 <i>Anticipo ~{rain_lead:.0f}h (fascia {tier}: "
f"soglia {LEAD_RAIN_3H[tier]:.0f} mm/3h)</i>"
)
if "rain" in comparisons:
comp = comparisons["rain"]
rain_msg += f"\n⚠️ <b>Discordanza modelli</b>: AROME {comp['arome']:.1f} mm | ICON {comp['icon']:.1f} mm (scostamento {comp['diff_pct']:.0f}%)"
alerts.append(rain_msg)
state["last_rain_3h"] = float(rain_max_3h)
elif rain_base_ok:
LOGGER.info(
"Pioggia %.1f mm/3h soppressa (anticipo ~%.0fh, fascia %s richiede ≥%.0f mm/3h)",
rain_max_3h, rain_lead, lead_tier(rain_lead),
LEAD_RAIN_3H[lead_tier(rain_lead)],
)
state["last_rain_3h"] = 0.0
else:
state["last_rain_3h"] = 0.0
is_alarm_now = (
(len(sig_storms) > 0)
or (wind_level_curr > 0)
or (rain_persist >= PERSIST_HOURS and rain_max_3h >= RAIN_3H_LIMIT)
or wind_notify
or rain_notify
)
should_notify = bool(alerts)
@@ -1692,7 +1816,12 @@ def analyze(chat_ids: Optional[List[str]] = None, debug_mode: bool = False, lat:
should_notify = True
debug_message_only = True
alert_signature = build_alert_signature(alerts, wind_level_curr, rain_max_3h, sig_storms)
alert_signature = build_alert_signature(
alerts,
wind_level_curr if wind_notify else 0,
rain_max_3h if rain_notify else 0.0,
sig_storms,
)
# --- Gate anti-spam globale (max 1/giorno + cooldown, escalation se peggioramento) ---
if should_notify and alerts and not debug_message_only:
@@ -1741,10 +1870,10 @@ def analyze(chat_ids: Optional[List[str]] = None, debug_mode: bool = False, lat:
alert_types = []
if sig_storms and len(sig_storms) > 0:
alert_types.append("TEMPORALI SEVERI")
if wind_level_curr > 0:
if wind_notify:
wind_labels = {3: "TEMPESTA", 2: "VENTO MOLTO FORTE", 1: "VENTO FORTE"}
alert_types.append(wind_labels.get(wind_level_curr, "VENTO FORTE"))
if rain_persist >= PERSIST_HOURS and rain_max_3h >= RAIN_3H_LIMIT:
if rain_notify:
alert_types.append("PIOGGIA INTENSA")
state["alert_active"] = True